Generally speaking; when given an opportunity to make a decision, we tend to think in terms of the ‘now.’ We ask ourselves, ‘If I do this, what will happen in the now?’’ This is called, first-order thinking. First-order thinking focuses on the immediate outcome of a situation, with minimal, or superficial analysis of other possible outcomes [the now]. For example, In order to balance your department budget, you decide there is a need to cut costs by reducing your workforce [this is the now]. So, you sit down and look at all the staff and decide which staff will be laid off so you can balance your budget. All is good, budget is balanced, and you move on to the next issue on your plate. But is it all good?
Compared to first-order thinking, which focuses on immediate outcomes and, many times, superficial analysis, second-order thinking [the, what’s next?] seeks to explore a deeper dive into the potential ripples and unintended consequences. Decisions, strategies, and policies made with first-order thinking has the potential to lead to issues that could bring everything down.
Second-order thinking is a cognitive process involving considering not only the immediate consequences of an action [the now: laying off people you balance the budget], but also the secondary and even tertiary effects [the ‘then what’] resulting from your decision. If you take the decision of staff layoffs, and you add the idea of second-order thinking you might come to a different conclusion; when asking ‘then what’ you may determine, layoffs could lead to second-order effects like, a decrease in morale, and an increase in fear for those employees still working could be next. This could lead to lower productivity and higher turnover rates. The layoffs could lead to long-term implication which could damage the organizations culture and difficulty attracting talent in the future.
I have to admit, I understand first-order thinking; it’s quick, semi-easy, it does not require going deep, and you can justify your decision. I would be remised if I did not admit to using first-order thinking in the past, I would be dishonest if I did not say it never came back to bite me, it has. I learned a long time ago, first-order thinking leads to major issues which are hard, and sometimes impossible, to fix.
You can think of second-order thinking like tossing a rock into a still pond and recognizing the ripples, while first-order thinking is tossing a rock on the ocean and not seeing the ripples over the waves. Second-order thinking centers on our ability to analyze the potential ripples of a potential decision. It forces us to look at, not only the immediate consequences, but the secondary and tertiary effects that may arise. Second-order thinking requires us to go deeper into the issue [follow the ripples]; the complexities of decision-making at its core. Second-order of thinking is crucial in facing effective problem-solving and strategic planning. It helps leadership and organizations avoid issues that arise from simplistic thinking.
To engage in second-order thinking, one can follow these steps:
- First, Develop a Team of Trusted Voices: Work with a team of three to five people who are able to use critical thinking, and have an idea of what could happen – and trust their voice.
- Second, Identify the First-Order Effects: Determine the direct consequences of a decision or action [pro or con]
- Third, With the Team Ask, “Then What?” Questions: Think about all the subsequent consequences that could develop by the first-order thinking answer. This is where you and your team start to uncover the second-order effects.
- Fourth, Ask Yourself, What Are The Long-Term Implications: Think of all the second-order affects you developed during your initial first-order thinking session, and look at them as first-order effects, and seek to develop second-order thinking on them as well. Contemplate the long-term impacts of all second-order effects.
Keep in mind, this should not be a rabbit hole; there needs to be a time you fish and stop cutting bait. There needs to come a time where a decision is made, and by using second-order thinking will help you defend your decision because you have look at all possible issues.
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