Are Millennials Moving to Urban Cities in California?

The answer is, “Yes and No.” According to a University of Virginia analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, since 2023, many cities with more than 1 million residents have lost adults ages 25 to 44.  The interesting thing is, Urban Cities and Towns with smaller populations have gained young people. Why, and is it true?

Let’s start with how California is currently defining an Urban City: The current criteria for a California City to be designated an Urban Area Delineations [UAD], the City area must include a minimum of 2,000 housing units or a population of at least 5,000 persons. Given the new definition, California now has 193 urban areas. This delineation increases the urban population in newly designated cities by  1,885,884, or 5.3% from past criteria. Interestingly, the total urban area population in relationship to California’s total population decreased 0.6%, from 95% to 94.2%.

The annual percentage decline in population that harms a city can vary, but significant declines can lead to economic challenges, reduced demand for services, and potential loss of infrastructure. For instance, a city experiencing a 10% decline in one year can face substantial financial impacts, the list below indicated Cities in California getting rather close to the 10% annual decline:

Top 5 Negative Growth Cities Over 5,000 Close to 10% Annual Decline:

Bottom 5 Negative Growth Cities Over 5,000 not Close to the 10% Annual Decline:

Top 5 Fastest Growing Cities in California with a Population Over 5,000:

So, what gives? Why are some smaller UAD Cities in decline, while others are growing? If trends line this continue, it will cause significant challenges to urban inequality. If we look at the Top Five Cities, and the Botton Five cities in decline, we can focus on ways to address the decline and hopefully bring about growth.

Population growth and decline can bring a “vibe” to the City, one of excitement, or one of despair. Both excitement and despair can bring a range of demographic, economic, and urban planning factors. I believe the key in addressing decline is to focus on challengers’ as possibilities; if not, the consequence is continued population decline. Decline, even small declines, can fester into something worse. It can develop into a spiral of decline that can be hard to pull out of. Decline leads to budget deficits, a decrease in public services, and decrease in community amenities. These can lead to a ’Community Depression” and a negative impact on vulnerable populations, low-income residents and minority communities, but where to start?

You will need to do is understand what the City thinks. To do this, you will need to develop a City Needs Survey [CNS], with clear focused questions – no open ended questions. The Universality of Kanas’s Community Toolbox is a great resource. Work with local Colleges and Universities to help develop the CNS, and get involved. Never limit the CNS to an online survey; it can be one component but having volunteers “walk the streets” with surveys in hand can go a long way.

Supporting local businesses and entrepreneurship. Review all City Ordinances, rules, laws, and fees to ensure they are not limiting growth. Many Cities have business fees, and permit costs that limit the economic growth of the City. Most ordinances, fees and permitting structures were created during good, growing time and were an easy way to develop additional revenue, but time have change.

Look over the City and develop a true, honest, and lasting Revitalization Plan. Depending on the size of the City this plan may need to be divided into phased. Have teams walk the whole city, look at everything, the condition sidewalks and roads [do they need to be repaired of widened? Wide sidewalks in front of business help increase revenue], investigate affordable housing, check out the condition of buildings, look at current and needed community amenities, add some community gardens, such as parks and public spaces. Generally look over the entire city and ask, “What will make our City Better?”

Improving public transportation and infrastructure. For this to have impact, all City Leaders, Elected Officials, and Stakeholders, need to use public transportation for a week or two – no exceptions. They need to survey all riders with questions designed to see how the City can improve.

Bu doing those three things, the City and address many of the issues facing the City, and come across in an honest way and welcome new people to the community.

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John C. O'Keefe

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